Today’s projects are increasingly complex and face increasing levels of cost and schedule uncertainty and risk. Decision makers wonder why their teams’ accuracy predictions often miss the mark. However, there are quantitative risk analysis (QRA) methods available that bring empirical realism to the table while being simple and practical for every project at any decision gate.
This seminar, given by John Hollmann, will allow you to capitalize on the expert’s knowledge and experience to build your decision and risk management skills, knowledge, and competency to support more effective investment decision-making and project control.
The seminar focuses on the quantitative step of the risk management process that is vital for making proper capital investment (owner) and bidding (contractor) decisions. The QRA methods are based on recognized AACE principles and recommended practices that are grounded in historical reality while addressing the changing context of your projects and project systems.
Standard: $ 1700 including materials, lunch, coffee and tea
Early birds: $ 1500 until 8 December 2023
Payments will be done via an invoice.
For more information, send us a message at [email protected]
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Introduction & Context
-The Project Risk Management Process including Quantification
-Project Systems, the Phase-Gate Process and Estimate Classification
-Terminology and the Essentials of Statistics and Modelling
-Understanding Accuracy Reality; Industry Research
Quantitative Risk Analysis
-An Integrated Project Risk Quantification (PRQ) Process
-The QRA toolbox (no single method works best for all risks)
-PRQ Methods 1: Systemic Risks & Parametric Modelling*
-PRQ Methods 2: Project-Specific Risks & Expected Value w/MCS*
-PRQ Methods 3: Escalation and Exchange
-PRQ Methods 4: Program and Portfolio Analysis*
-PRQ Methods 5: Complexity and Tipping Point (Non-Linear) Analysis*
-Closing the Loop: Project Historical Data Analysis for Tool Calibration
-Using PRQ Outputs in Project Control and Decision Making
* includes exercises using ValidRisk®
At the end of this seminar, you will learn to:
Optimize cost and schedule outcomes by realistically addressing risk in a practical way
Discover practical, realistic methods supported by research and the AACEI
Explore method variations by risk type and by project phase
Strengthen capital investment decision making, bidding, and project control
Build Decision and Risk Management skills, knowledge and competency
Expand risk analysis capabilities beyond unreliable traditional methods
People with these or similar backgrounds will benefit from this workshop:
- Capital Investment Planners | Project Managers | Cost Estimators | Planners and Schedulers |
- Project Controllers | Risk Managers and Analysts
This applies to all industries involving construction from process plants to infrastructure.
Meet the Expert
PE | CEP | CCP | DRMP
John Hollmann is an industry expert, author, leader, and presenter in the Cost Engineering/Risk Management profession for the process industries and infrastructure.
- Owner of Validation Estimating, LLC and Partner in ValidRisk®
- Past Board member of AACE International and the International Cost Engineering Council (ICEC)
- Past AACEI Technical Board Member; Primary Contributor to 48 AACEI Recommended Practices; AACE Honorary Life Member and recipient of their Lifetime Achievement Award
- Editor/Lead Author of “Total Cost Management Framework” (2006), the technical foundation for all AACEI products
- Author of “Project Risk Quantification: A Practitioner’s Guide to Realistic Cost and Schedule Risk Management”
Some comments about John Hollmann from reviewers of John’s PRQ book:
“For those in the trenches of project cost engineering in general, and risk analysis in particular, it is difficult to find practices that are practical and reliable…John lays out an integrated set of methods in detail but documents their basis in empirical reality.”
Prashant Srivastava, Manager, Cost Engineering, Enbridge, Inc.
“John has the ability to share his profound knowledge and experiences without any prejudice. He’s patient and loves what he is doing.”
Andres Pereira, Cost Engineer at Ecopetrol